Miami opens the season in Gainesville in less than three weeks. You guys had plenty of questions. Let’s dive in.
What is your realistic prediction for this season? Joel Klatt says it’s an 11-1 roster. I’ve been a lifelong Canes fan but they haven’t been the same since Ken Dorsey left obviously. Is Cam Ward a guy who can take them to the next level and challenge for a Playoff spot? — Bryan C.
Is this the year? – Zachary P.
Let’s get right to it: I’m picking Miami to win the ACC and earn a top-four seed in the College Football Playoff. Ward is the biggest reason. He’s got a chip on his shoulder to prove himself. He has tremendous arm talent (he flicks the ball so easily and puts it in great spots). And he is determined to challenge his teammates at all times.
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The last bit is really the reason why I’m buying into Miami’s preseason hype. Ward is an alpha, as coach Mario Cristobal has said. It’s not fake. Ward’s teammates have corroborated his reputation to talk trash, challenge them and elevate their play when TV cameras and mics aren’t around. Having one of those guys at the quarterback position can make all the difference between going 7-5 or 10-2 or better. I’m well aware of Tyler Van Dyke’s turnover issues from a year ago, and I’m not blind to Ward’s extensive history of fumbles.
But he’s got more talent around him here than he did at Washington State, with three 800-yard receivers, a 1,000-yard running back and a Cristobal- and Alex Mirabal-made offensive line. The only way I see Miami falling short of its 9.5-win over/under mark is a plague of injuries to Ward’s supporting cast or Ward himself.
How many TDs do you realistically expect from Ward? Similarly how many yards for the season do you expect from our top rusher and wide receiver and who do you expect the leaders to be? Similar question about our sack leader. Additionally, what passing versus rushing mix are you anticipating in terms of the percentage of total plays and total yards? — Altan K.
Miami averaged 31.5 points per game last season (tied for 39th among FBS programs), 6.4 yards per play (24th) and the percentage breakdown of run versus pass was nearly 50-50. I still expect the Canes to be balanced in terms of pass-to-run ratio — maybe a bit more pass-heavy if they are in shootouts.
As for individual marks, Ward accounted for 33 touchdowns (25 passing) last season on a 5-7 team without Damien Martinez and Mark Fletcher on it. I don’t expect him to run for as many touchdowns, but Ward should throw for 30-plus if he’s playing at least 13 games.
Will Martinez rush for 1,000 yards again? It would certainly help Miami with future portal targets if guys like Martinez and Ward put up All-ACC-type numbers. So I’m going to say Martinez rushes for at least 1,000 yards with Fletcher chipping in roughly 600 yards. Who becomes Miami’s top receiver is a very good question, but I’m going to go with Xavier Restrepo because I assume he’ll garner the most targets in the slot. He just might not reach the 1,000-yard mark again (there are too many mouths to feed). As for sacks, I’m going with Rueben Bain (seven sacks) on a unit I expect will lead the ACC in sacks (Florida State led with 46 last year while Miami had 35).
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I know the Florida and FSU games are getting the most hype from Miami fans, but I actually think the Virginia Tech game at home, USF and Cal on the road are maybe just as tricky. Thoughts? — Hassan K.
I agree that the three-week stretch between the Hokies, Bulls and Bears is not easy. I’m really looking forward to the Virginia Tech game because Ward and Hokies quarterback Kyron Drones have a strong friendship and competitive rivalry from training together back home in Houston. Virginia Tech is going to be a difficult ACC opener on a short week and coming off a tough trip to Tampa to face a very good Alex Golesh-coached team. I suspect Bulls quarterback Byrum Brown will be the most sought-after G5 player in the transfer portal (if he doesn’t go pro) following the coming season.
The trip to Cal is obviously interesting because of the distance and the challenge of trying to stop Jaydn Ott, who I believe is the best running back in the league. Not that previous results matter, but Cal hosted Auburn last year and led for much of the game before losing 14-10. The Bears beat the last two ACC teams that traveled out West (North Carolina in 2018 and Maryland in 2009) and the two previous SEC visitors prior to the Auburn game (Ole Miss in 2017 and Tennessee in 2007). Schools from the Southeast don’t just go to Berkeley and win easily.
Which freshman will have the biggest impact this year? Which position coach will have the biggest impact? Have we practiced the QB kneel? — Chris M.
It’s going to be hard for true freshmen to see any meaningful roles with a team as experienced and deep as this one (only six true freshmen started a game for Miami last year). But it’s not impossible either. Zaquan Patterson is the obvious answer because of his position on the depth chart at a thin safety position. O.J. Frederique Jr. at cornerback is another, considering defensive coordinator Lance Guidry told me the summer arrival has a chance to be the team’s fifth cornerback based on what he’s seen through offseason workouts.
Beyond that, defensive tackle Justin Scott figures to find a spot in the rotation at defensive tackle and I suspect Elija Lofton will carve out a small, special role out of the backfield, especially near the goal line (he was terrific at this in high school). Jojo Trader and Ny Carr could position themselves to be in bigger roles by season’s end at receiver.
As for the assistant coach, I think Derek Nicholson has had a tremendous impact on Miami’s linebackers — from recruiting to player development. That position is so much better now than it was before Nicholson’s arrival. Long term, though, it’s obviously offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson because he’ll be judged on how Miami’s quarterbacks develop behind Ward. You won’t always hit home runs in the portal. Somebody needs to be in place to take over in 2025.
Watch out for these two in the trenches 💪@FrancisMauigoa and @juustinscott land on Bruce Feldman’s Freak List 🙌#GoCanes pic.twitter.com/fbt5tOPV50
— Miami Hurricanes Football (@CanesFootball) August 7, 2024
Are there coaches on the staff who are tabbed to step into the coordinator roles if the coordinators depart? — Curtis H.
My educated guess is Cristobal would look outside the building for an offensive coordinator if Dawson is not here beyond this season. When your OC is also in charge of your quarterbacks, it’s my experience that you rarely see someone promoted from within to simply step into those shoes and call plays the following year. Defensively, I could see Nicholson being promoted if Guidry were plucked away. Nicholson is already co-defensive coordinator, and he’s being groomed for a promotion whether it is here or elsewhere.
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Would we have had Jeremiah Smith if Cam Ward didn’t jerk us around for three weeks during signing day? — Chris M.
When the nation’s No. 1 recruit narrowly chose Ohio State over Miami on the third Wednesday in December, Ward and his parents were nowhere near a decision about coming back to college. Ward was working out in Jacksonville and training for the NFL Draft. So Miami didn’t have anything to really sell Smith in terms of a proven elite QB to throw him the ball. In the end, I can say being around Smith in the days leading up to his decision, the only thing giving him pause about Ohio State was missing out on the opportunity to play close to home and in front of family. Once he knew for sure the NIL deal Ohio State promised him was real, he was all in on the Buckeyes.
Cristobal’s reputation is that he is a great recruiter and an underwhelming coach. He seems to be delivering on both fronts. How bad would Miami have to be in 2024 for them to consider a coaching change? — Tim C.
First off, Cristobal signed a 10-year, $80 million contract in December 2021. Nobody is buying him out with seven years left on his contract if Miami struggles this season. Secondly, the fact Miami has one of the healthiest NIL collectives in college football is in large part because Cristobal was the person the school hired. I’m fairly confident most of the funding needed to rebuild Miami’s roster — and sign back-to-back top-seven recruiting classes — does not come if Cristobal is still at Oregon. So while I understand the premise of the question here, I’m not sure everybody who roots for Miami necessarily understands how this would have worked out if Manny Diaz were still here or someone other than Cristobal were in charge. It was “a collective effort” to bring Cristobal back home.
With so many new faces in the secondary, is there any concern for this unit to come together so quickly? — Brian S.
How do you see the DB depth chart shaking out? — Adam F.
Miami’s secondary is the biggest question mark entering the season. The Canes lost two starting corners in Te’Cory Couch and Jaden Davis and both starting safeties in James Williams and Kamren Kinchens. But an elite pass rush helps make even the worst secondaries look good.
This isn’t necessarily a bad secondary in terms of talent. It’s just thin on experience beyond Washington transfer Meesh Powell (25 career starts), Marshall transfer Dyoni Hill (nine starts) and returning starter Daryl Porter Jr. (24 starts). All three of those guys will be starting, with Powell taking the bulk of his snaps at safety in a Kinchens-type role and occasionally lining up to cover elite slot receivers.
The hope is Damari Brown’s groin doesn’t become an issue as it did at the end of last season because he’s a big, physical corner with loads of talent. If he’s good, then Jaden Harris can slot into the other starting safety spot alongside Powell and those five will see the bulk of the workload. Markeith Williams and Patterson can work in at safety, with Jadais Richard, Robert Stafford and maybe a freshman providing depth at corner.
We can assume based on reports that Michigan will get a slap on the wrist for what many consider to be the largest on-field cheating scandal in college football in at least the last three decades. Why shouldn’t all schools (Miami included) not up their cheating game? The NCAA clearly has no teeth anymore and is unwilling to even try. I’d love to be a smarmy Michigan fan with a championship. — Chris M.
As a youth soccer and basketball coach, I’ve been guilty of telling my assistant coaches in the past that if we’re not cheating, we’re not really trying to win. That’s partially tongue-in-cheek. We don’t fake birth certificates or tell our players to take any opponents out. These are kids after all. But if you’re a competitor at the collegiate or professional level, you really aren’t doing your job unless you’re pushing every boundary possible to put your players and your team in the best positions to win. It’s up to somebody else to determine if you’re breaking the rules, to catch you doing it and then prosecute you to the fullest extent of the law. Cristobal wasn’t brought to Miami to raise team GPAs or to win eight games. He was brought here to win championships. Nobody (Michigan football, New England Patriots, Houston Astros) really seems to win those anymore without some blood on their hands.
What is a feel-good story of a player you haven’t had a chance to tell us about? — Chris M.
There’s always a lot of them. I’m sure my editors will read this and tell me I should write the story, but one of my favorites is the Mauigoa brothers. I drove to IMG Academy — three hours from my home in South Florida — and met up with Francis “Cici” Mauigoa for about half an hour before he finished school there. Cici told me about his family’s life in American Samoa, their grandfather being a village chief, his parents, how they met and the work they did to maintain their standard of living and feed all their kids. Just the entire journey of both Miami Mauigoa brothers from where they grew up to playing football and eventually making the NFL (they’ll be there soon) makes you smile. I’ll write it when the time is right.
(Photo of Cam Ward courtesy of Miami Athletics)
Manny Navarro has been with The Athletic since September 2018 and covers Miami and recruiting. He's also the host of the "Wide Right" podcast. Manny's career started at The Miami Herald in October 1995 when he was a high school senior. He covered the Hurricanes, Heat, Marlins and high school sports for 23 years at the paper. He makes occasional appearances on WSVN's Sports Xtra on Sunday nights and is on the "Big O Show" with Orlando Alzugaray at 12:30 p.m. Tuesdays and Fridays. Follow Manny on Twitter @Manny_Navarro
